Political and geopolitical risk
Geopolitical risk examples affecting business in 2026
Eight real examples of geopolitical risk hitting companies in 2026, from the Hormuz closure and Red Sea diversions to sanctions, mine seizures and chip concentration.
Guide
Political and geopolitical riskLast updated
3 minute read
By Zed Three analysts
Short answer
Geopolitical risks are political events between or within states that change the cost or feasibility of doing business. Clear 2026 examples include the Strait of Hormuz closure, Red Sea shipping diversions, US sanctions on shadow fleet tankers, mine nationalizations in the Sahel, Chinese export controls on critical minerals and Taiwan's concentration of advanced chipmaking.
Last updated
Energy and shipping
1. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal traffic since Feb 28, 2026, cutting Gulf oil and LNG exports and lifting Brent above US$100. 2. Houthi attacks pushed carriers around Africa from late 2023, and services are only now returning to Suez. 3. Sea drone strikes on merchant ships in the Black Sea keep war risk high there.
Sanctions and state action
4. The US designated 17 more Iranian shadow fleet tankers in October 2026 and warned foreign banks of secondary sanctions. 5. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger expanded state control of foreign owned mines in 2025 and 2026.
Technology, materials and food
6. China refined about 91% of rare earths and 99% of gallium in 2025, and has used export controls. 7. Taiwan held about 63% of global chip capacity at 7 nm and below. 8. The FAO warns the Hormuz closure disrupts 20% to 30% of traded fertilizer, a risk to 2027 harvests.
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Related chokepoints
Chokepoint explainer
Strait of HormuzThe Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and OmanRead the explainer →Chokepoint explainer
Bab el-Mandeb StraitThe Red Sea's southern gate, between Yemen and DjiboutiRead the explainer →Chokepoint explainer
Taiwan StraitThe sea lane between Taiwan and mainland ChinaRead the explainer →Related country risk assessments
Frequently asked questions
What are the main types of geopolitical risk?
Armed conflict, sanctions and trade restrictions, chokepoint disruption, regime change and instability, resource nationalism and technology controls.
Is a tariff a geopolitical risk?
Yes, when it reflects relations between states, such as trade disputes or strategic decoupling.
How do I know which geopolitical risks matter to my company?
Map where your people, assets, suppliers and routes are, then rank risks by likelihood and impact on those exposures.
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