ConflictSevere
Russian forces lost a net 27 square kilometers in October and suffered their highest monthly losses of the war.
Country risk assessment ยท Europe
Russia political and security risk assessment
Russia sits in the Severe band. The war in Ukraine continues, with Ukraine striking Russian oil refineries and Russia striking Ukraine's power grid ahead of winter. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
70of 100
Severe
Band 5 of 5
▼ Down 1 on last week
Europe
Russia
What is the political and security risk in Russia right now?
Russia sits in the Severe band. The war in Ukraine continues, with Ukraine striking Russian oil refineries and Russia striking Ukraine's power grid ahead of winter.
Sanctions exposure stays very high for any business touching Russian energy, finance or shipping, and Black Sea trade carries war risk.
What are the main risks of operating in Russia?
Energy infrastructureSevere
Ukrainian drones hit the Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod and a major Rosneft refinery in Samara.
Sanctions and regulatorySevere
Russia remains under broad Western sanctions covering energy, finance and technology.
MaritimeHigh
Black Sea shipping is increasingly dangerous amid long range strikes, and the US and Turkey are discussing a limited maritime ceasefire.
Chokepoint exposure
Bosphorus and the Turkish StraitsThe Black Sea's only sea link to the worldRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Russia?
Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries, setting fire to the Kstovo refinery.
A six day localized ceasefire around Oleshky in Kherson region ended with no reported violations and no extension.
Ukraine and Turkey advanced cooperation on a limited Black Sea ceasefire to secure grain exports.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is highly unlikely that a full ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine takes effect within 3 months.
5 to 15%
0%50%100%
We assess it is likely that Ukrainian drones strike further Russian refineries within the next month.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Screen counterparties, vessels and cargo for sanctions exposure before any Russia linked trade.
Expect refinery outages to keep Russian product exports volatile.
Black Sea calls carry war risk; check insurance cover before fixing.
Key facts
GDPUS$2.56 trillionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth1%Latest data, 2025
Inflation8.7%Latest data, 2025
Trade34% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Fuel exports43% of goods exportsLatest data, 2021
Population143.5 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Russia threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Russia for business?
Russia sits in the Severe band. The war in Ukraine continues, with Ukraine striking Russian oil refineries and Russia striking Ukraine's power grid ahead of winter.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Russia?
The main risk drivers are conflict (severe); energy infrastructure (severe); sanctions and regulatory (severe); maritime (high). Russian forces lost a net 27 square kilometers in October and suffered their highest monthly losses of the war.
What is the outlook for Russia?
We assess it is highly unlikely (5 to 15%) that a full ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine takes effect within 3 months.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Russia?
Russia is exposed to the Bosphorus and the Turkish Straits. The Black Sea's only sea link to the world.
How often is the Russia risk assessment updated?
The Russia threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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