Conflict and terrorismSevere
An eight month conflict with the United States and Israel, with the region braced for possible renewed fighting.
Country risk assessment ยท Asia
Iran political and security risk assessment
Iran sits in the Severe band. The war with the United States and Israel is in its eighth month, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, and the Strait of Hormuz is not operating normally. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
77of 100
Severe
Band 5 of 5
▼ Down 2 on last week
Asia
Iran
What is the political and security risk in Iran right now?
Iran sits in the Severe band. The war with the United States and Israel is in its eighth month, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, and the Strait of Hormuz is not operating normally.
Diplomacy is live but unresolved. Iran says it could reopen Hormuz within two days if Washington lifts the blockade and sanctions, and Qatar and Pakistan are mediating indirect talks. The US has not accepted the terms, and President Trump has suggested strikes could follow the Nov 3 midterm elections.
What are the main risks of operating in Iran?
Political stabilityHigh
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly given the government powers to accelerate talks with the US.
Sanctions and regulatorySevere
Tehran's conditions include lifting new US sanctions, ending the blockade and restoring planned oil sanctions waivers. Any dealings touching Iran carry heavy compliance risk.
Maritime and chokepoint exposureSevere
Hormuz traffic is disrupted, with mine and projectile claims reported on shipping lanes in recent weeks.
Chokepoint exposure
Strait of HormuzThe Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and OmanRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Iran?
Iran says its seven step plan to reopen Hormuz and resume talks could now be carried out in two days instead of seven, if its demands are met.
Foreign Minister Araghchi says the US must lift the new sanctions, end the blockade and scale back its regional military presence.
Iranian negotiators left the Qatar talks with a draft proposal circulating and a follow up meeting possible, an official said.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is unlikely that a US-Iran deal to reopen Hormuz is agreed by Nov 30.
20 to 35%
0%50%100%
We assess it is likely that Hormuz shipping remains disrupted through the end of December.
55 to 70%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Do not commit cargo to Hormuz on the strength of headlines. Confirm routing and war risk cover with carriers before every Gulf voyage.
Sanctions exposure is the first question for any counterparty with Iranian links. Keep Gulf contingency plans active.
Non essential travel to Iran should be ruled out while the conflict continues.
Key facts
GDPUS$362.7 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth-2.8%Latest data, 2025
Inflation42.2%Latest data, 2025
Trade60% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Fuel exports68% of goods exportsLatest data, 2023
Population92.4 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Iran threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Iran for business?
Iran sits in the Severe band. The war with the United States and Israel is in its eighth month, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, and the Strait of Hormuz is not operating normally.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Iran?
The main risk drivers are conflict and terrorism (severe); political stability (high); sanctions and regulatory (severe); maritime and chokepoint exposure (severe). An eight month conflict with the United States and Israel, with the region braced for possible renewed fighting.
What is the outlook for Iran?
We assess it is unlikely (20 to 35%) that a US-Iran deal to reopen Hormuz is agreed by Nov 30.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Iran?
Iran is exposed to the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and Oman.
How often is the Iran risk assessment updated?
The Iran threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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