Shipping and chokepoints
Cape of Good Hope rerouting: what it costs and when it ends
Why carriers diverted around Africa, how many days it adds, and what to watch as Red Sea routings return in late 2026.
Guide
Shipping and chokepointsLast updated
3 minute read
By Zed Three analysts
Short answer
Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal adds roughly 3,000 to 4,000 nautical miles and 7 to 14 days to an Asia and Europe voyage. Carriers used it to avoid Houthi attacks from late 2023, and by October 2026 Cape diversions had fallen to their lowest level since January 2024.
Last updated
Why the Cape adds cost
Longer voyages burn more fuel, tie up more ships and push up charter demand. Shippers pay through surcharges, slower inventory turns and less reliable schedules. For perishable or time critical cargo the extra week or two can matter more than the freight rate.
Why carriers are switching back now
The security picture in the Red Sea has improved enough for most of the largest carriers to restore some Suez services, and transit data showed a post-crisis high in megamax transits in October. Each carrier is moving service by service, and some ships still return to Asia via the Cape.
What shippers should watch
Carrier advisories, war risk terms for the southern Red Sea and any renewed attack near Bab el-Mandeb. A single serious incident can send services back around Africa within days.
What happens next?
We assess it is likely that Cape diversions on Asia and Europe lanes keep falling through December.
We assess it is unlikely that a new attack wave forces most carriers back to the Cape before Dec 31.
Likelihood ranges are Zed Three editorial judgments as of Nov 2, 2026, not advice.
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Frequently asked questions
How many extra days does the Cape route add?
About 7 to 14 days one way between Asia and Europe, depending on ports and speed; reports put it at about 10 extra days for China to northern Europe.
Are ships still going around Africa?
Some are. Carriers are restoring Red Sea routes gradually, and several services still use the Cape on part of the rotation.
Does Cape routing change insurance?
It avoids the southern Red Sea war risk listed area, so additional war premiums for that leg fall away, but voyage costs rise.
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