Shipping and chokepoints
Red Sea shipping crisis: where things stand in late 2026
Container lines are returning to the Red Sea and Suez transits are climbing, but volumes remain below pre-crisis levels and Houthi risk has not gone away.
Guide
Shipping and chokepointsLast updated
3 minute read
By Zed Three analysts
Short answer
The Red Sea shipping crisis is easing but not over. Suez Canal transits reached 305 in the week to Oct 25, 2026, 35% above the October 2025 weekly average, yet tonnage is still 36% below pre-crisis levels. Carriers are returning service by service and keep Cape of Good Hope contingencies.
Last updated
How the crisis started
Houthi forces in Yemen began attacking commercial ships in late 2023, and most container lines diverted around Africa. Containership capacity through Suez fell from about 6 million TEU a month before the crisis to a fraction of that.
What has changed in 2026
Carriers have moved back in stages. Industry estimates suggested that 63% of capacity on direct Asia and Europe services was assigned to Red Sea loops by mid-October, and more than 100 containerships above 16,000 TEU used Suez from September. MSC resumed Suez transits on its Australia Express service on Oct 31.
Bab el-Mandeb traffic is still 46% below pre-crisis tonnage. Some services sail the Red Sea in one direction and return around the Cape.
What it means for shippers
Transit times and spot rates on Asia and Europe lanes are falling as capacity frees up, but schedule reliability can break again with one attack. Keep routing clauses flexible, confirm war risk terms per voyage and do not plan inventory on the shorter route alone.
What happens next?
We assess it is likely that Suez container capacity keeps rising through December.
We assess it is unlikely that all top 10 carriers have resumed Red Sea routings by Dec 31.
Likelihood ranges are Zed Three editorial judgments as of Nov 2, 2026, not advice.
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Frequently asked questions
Is it safe to ship through the Red Sea now?
Safer than in 2024, but not risk free. Most large carriers have restored some Red Sea services, and the southern Red Sea remains a Joint War Committee listed area.
Which carriers have not returned to the Red Sea?
As of mid-October 2026, Evergreen and Zim were the only two of the top 10 carriers yet to resume Red Sea transits.
How much longer is the route around Africa?
Rerouting Asia and Europe cargo around the Cape of Good Hope typically adds 3,000 to 4,000 nautical miles and about 7 to 14 days.
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