Staff movement and duty of careSevere
Foreign governments warn against all travel, the highest level of warning.
Country risk assessment ยท Europe
Belarus political and security risk assessment
Belarus carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 40 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
40of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Europe
Belarus
What is the political and security risk in Belarus right now?
Belarus carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 40 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is steady. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 1.3% in 2025 with inflation at 6.6%.
What are the main risks of operating in Belarus?
Protest and civil unrestElevated
Protests are persistent but usually manageable with planning.
Armed conflict and political violenceGuarded
Armed violence is occasional and mostly localized.
What has changed recently in Belarus?
Belarus moved unchanged this week and rose 1 point over the last 12 weeks, from 39 to 40.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Belarus stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 1 point from the Guarded band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade equals 112% of GDP (2025 data). A highly open economy, so local disruption travels quickly through supplier networks.
Operations continue but need active security planning in affected areas.
Key facts
GDPUS$93.4 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth1.3%Latest data, 2025
Inflation6.6%Latest data, 2025
Trade112% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population9.1 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Belarus threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Belarus for business?
Belarus carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 40 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Belarus?
The main risk drivers are staff movement and duty of care (severe); protest and civil unrest (elevated); armed conflict and political violence (guarded). Foreign governments warn against all travel, the highest level of warning.
What is the outlook for Belarus?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Belarus stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 1 point from the Guarded band.
How often is the Belarus risk assessment updated?
The Belarus threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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