Conflict and terrorismSevere
Daily Russian drone, missile and guided bomb attacks across the country.
Country risk assessment ยท Europe
Ukraine political and security risk assessment
Ukraine sits in the Severe band. Russia is concentrating strikes on the power grid as winter approaches, and outages hit up to 10 regions on Nov 2, including Kyiv. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
82of 100
Severe
Band 5 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Europe
Ukraine
What is the political and security risk in Ukraine right now?
Ukraine sits in the Severe band. Russia is concentrating strikes on the power grid as winter approaches, and outages hit up to 10 regions on Nov 2, including Kyiv.
Grid operator Ukrenergo has imposed emergency outages and warned some consumers could be without power for up to 16 hours on Nov 3.
What are the main risks of operating in Ukraine?
Infrastructure and supply chainSevere
Repeated strikes on substations, transformers and power lines, with hourly outage schedules that also apply to industrial users.
Maritime and chokepoint exposureHigh
Drone attacks on merchant ships in the western Black Sea in October raise the risk to Ukraine bound and Black Sea trade.
Chokepoint exposure
Bosphorus and the Turkish StraitsThe Black Sea's only sea link to the worldRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Ukraine?
Russian attacks caused power outages in 10 regions, including Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa and Kharkiv oblasts, the Energy Ministry said.
Ukrenergo suspended scheduled outages and imposed emergency cuts in Kyiv and four regions until the grid stabilises.
Outage schedules of up to four queues are planned, meaning up to 16 hours without power in some regions.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is very likely that rolling blackouts continue across Ukraine through November.
80 to 90%
0%50%100%
We assess it is highly unlikely that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is in place by Dec 31.
5 to 15%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Confirm war risk cover for Black Sea calls, including Ukrainian ports and the western Black Sea.
Teams and suppliers need generator, connectivity and water plans for winter, and production schedules need slack for power cuts.
Plan for air raid alerts and power cuts in every region, including Kyiv.
Key facts
GDPUS$214.2 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth1.8%Latest data, 2025
Inflation12.7%Latest data, 2025
Trade77% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Food exports59% of goods exportsLatest data, 2024
Population39.0 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Ukraine threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Ukraine for business?
Ukraine sits in the Severe band. Russia is concentrating strikes on the power grid as winter approaches, and outages hit up to 10 regions on Nov 2, including Kyiv.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Ukraine?
The main risk drivers are conflict and terrorism (severe); infrastructure and supply chain (severe); maritime and chokepoint exposure (high). Daily Russian drone, missile and guided bomb attacks across the country.
What is the outlook for Ukraine?
We assess it is very likely (80 to 90%) that rolling blackouts continue across Ukraine through November.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Ukraine?
Ukraine is exposed to the Bosphorus and the Turkish Straits. The Black Sea's only sea link to the world.
How often is the Ukraine risk assessment updated?
The Ukraine threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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