Conflict and terrorismElevated
The attacker, a minor, was known to security services as a supporter of the Islamic State. It is the second attack at the embassy since June 2024.
Country risk assessment ยท Europe
Serbia political and security risk assessment
Serbia rose 4 points into the Elevated band after a knife attack on a police officer guarding the Israeli embassy in Belgrade on Oct 28. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
40of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▲ Up 4 on last week
Europe
Serbia
What is the political and security risk in Serbia right now?
Serbia rose 4 points into the Elevated band after a knife attack on a police officer guarding the Israeli embassy in Belgrade on Oct 28.
The interior minister called it a terrorist attack and raised Serbia's terrorism threat level to red, the highest level, increasing police presence at infrastructure and crowded places.
What are the main risks of operating in Serbia?
Political stabilityGuarded
Dacic is serving as deputy prime minister and interior minister in a caretaker capacity.
What has changed recently in Serbia?
An attacker with two knives wounded a Gendarmerie officer outside the Israeli embassy and was shot dead. Serbia raised its terrorism threat level to red.
Israel's foreign ministry said no embassy staff were hurt and the mission was closed at the time.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that the red threat level is lowered within the next month if no further incident occurs.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Expect heavier security and checks at diplomatic sites, infrastructure and large venues in Belgrade.
Business travel continues normally. Stay alert near embassies and crowded public places while the red level is in force.
Key facts
GDPUS$100.0 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth2%Latest data, 2025
Inflation3.9%Latest data, 2025
Trade113% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population6.5 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Serbia threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Serbia for business?
Serbia rose 4 points into the Elevated band after a knife attack on a police officer guarding the Israeli embassy in Belgrade on Oct 28.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Serbia?
The main risk drivers are conflict and terrorism (elevated); political stability (guarded). The attacker, a minor, was known to security services as a supporter of the Islamic State. It is the second attack at the embassy since June 2024.
What is the outlook for Serbia?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that the red threat level is lowered within the next month if no further incident occurs.
How often is the Serbia risk assessment updated?
The Serbia threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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