Staff movement and duty of careHigh
Foreign governments advise against non essential travel to the country or large parts of it.
Country risk assessment ยท Oceania
Papua New Guinea political and security risk assessment
Papua New Guinea carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 43 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), down 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
43of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▼ Down 1 on last week
Oceania
Papua New Guinea
What is the political and security risk in Papua New Guinea right now?
Papua New Guinea carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 43 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), down 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 5.6% in 2025 with inflation at 4.4%.
What are the main risks of operating in Papua New Guinea?
Armed conflict and political violenceElevated
Armed violence is reported regularly in some areas.
Protest and civil unrestGuarded
Protests occur but rarely disrupt operations.
What has changed recently in Papua New Guinea?
Papua New Guinea moved down 1 this week and rose 1 point over the last 12 weeks, from 42 to 43.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that Papua New Guinea stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 4 points from the Guarded band.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Fuels make up 43% of goods exports (2023 data), so security events can move energy supply and prices.
Operations continue but need active security planning in affected areas.
Key facts
GDPUS$32.5 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth5.6%Latest data, 2025
Inflation4.4%Latest data, 2025
Fuel exports43% of goods exportsLatest data, 2023
Ores and metals30% of goods exportsLatest data, 2023
Population10.8 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Papua New Guinea threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Papua New Guinea for business?
Papua New Guinea carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 43 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), down 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Papua New Guinea?
The main risk drivers are staff movement and duty of care (high); armed conflict and political violence (elevated); protest and civil unrest (guarded). Foreign governments advise against non essential travel to the country or large parts of it.
What is the outlook for Papua New Guinea?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that Papua New Guinea stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 4 points from the Guarded band.
How often is the Papua New Guinea risk assessment updated?
The Papua New Guinea threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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