Supply chain and energy
Critical minerals supply chain risk
China refined 91% of rare earths and 99% of gallium in 2025. What export controls mean for manufacturers and the November 2026 date to watch.
Guide
Supply chain and energyLast updated
3 minute read
By Zed Three analysts
Short answer
Critical minerals supply chains are highly concentrated at the refining stage. In 2025 China held about 91% of global rare earth refining, 99% of gallium refining and 94% of germanium refining. That concentration lets export controls disrupt magnet, chip, defense and clean energy manufacturing quickly.
Last updated
Where the risk sits
Mining is more spread out than refining and processing. A manufacturer that buys magnets from Japan or Europe may still depend on Chinese refined rare earths upstream.
Export controls in play
China has controlled seven heavy rare earths since April 2025. Broader controls announced in October 2025 on related products, equipment and technology, and bans on gallium and germanium exports to the US, were suspended until November 2026. Whether those suspensions are extended is a near term risk.
What buyers can do
Trace critical minerals to the refiner, hold strategic stock for parts with long qualification times, support offtake from new refining outside China and design for substitution where possible.
What happens next?
We assess it is a realistic possibility that China lets at least part of the suspended controls take effect by the end of March 2027.
We assess it is likely that China's share of rare earth refining stays above 85% through 2027.
Likelihood ranges are Zed Three editorial judgments as of Nov 2, 2026, not advice.
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Frequently asked questions
Which industries depend most on critical minerals?
Electric vehicles, wind turbines, electronics and semiconductors, aerospace and defense.
Why is refining more concentrated than mining?
China built processing capacity at scale over decades, and new refineries elsewhere take years to permit and build.
What is the risk for gallium and germanium?
Both are used in chips and electronics, and China refined 99% and 94% of global supply in 2025.
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