Armed conflict and political violenceHigh
Frequent armed violence is reported in parts of the country.
Country risk assessment ยท Asia
Indonesia political and security risk assessment
Indonesia carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 46 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
46of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Asia
Indonesia
What is the political and security risk in Indonesia right now?
Indonesia carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 46 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 5.1% in 2025 with inflation at 1.9%.
What are the main risks of operating in Indonesia?
Protest and civil unrestHigh
Protest activity is high and periodically disrupts business districts and roads.
Staff movement and duty of careGuarded
Foreign governments advise normal to increased caution.
Chokepoint exposure
Strait of MalaccaThe main sea lane from the Indian Ocean to East AsiaRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Indonesia?
Indonesia moved up 1 this week and fell 6 points over the last 12 weeks, from 52 to 46.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is highly likely that Indonesia stays in the Elevated band through the end of December.
80 to 90%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade routes for Indonesia are exposed to the Strait of Malacca, so disruption there feeds straight into freight time and cost.
Trade equals 43% of GDP (2025 data). Map tier one and tier two suppliers here and hold buffer stock for critical inputs.
Operations continue but need active security planning in affected areas.
Key facts
GDPUS$1.45 trillionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth5.1%Latest data, 2025
Inflation1.9%Latest data, 2025
Trade43% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Fuel exports16% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Food exports23% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population285.7 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Indonesia threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Indonesia for business?
Indonesia carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 46 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Indonesia?
The main risk drivers are armed conflict and political violence (high); protest and civil unrest (high); staff movement and duty of care (guarded). Frequent armed violence is reported in parts of the country.
What is the outlook for Indonesia?
We assess it is highly likely (80 to 90%) that Indonesia stays in the Elevated band through the end of December.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Indonesia?
Indonesia is exposed to the Strait of Malacca. The main sea lane from the Indian Ocean to East Asia.
How often is the Indonesia risk assessment updated?
The Indonesia threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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