Supply chain and energy
How to do a supply chain risk assessment that includes geopolitical risk
A practical supply chain risk assessment method that covers suppliers, routes, chokepoints and countries, with 2026 examples from Hormuz, the Red Sea and critical minerals.
Guide
Supply chain and energyLast updated
3 minute read
By Zed Three analysts
Short answer
A supply chain risk assessment identifies where your supply could fail, how likely that is and what it would cost. To include geopolitical risk, map suppliers beyond tier one to their countries and shipping routes, score each country and chokepoint, test specific scenarios such as a Hormuz closure, and rank actions by impact.
Last updated
Map beyond tier one
Most disruption starts below your direct suppliers. Record where key inputs are made, which ports they leave from and which chokepoints they cross, such as Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, Malacca or Panama.
Score countries and routes
Combine country risk scores with route exposure. A supplier in a low risk country that ships through the Strait of Hormuz still carries Hormuz risk.
Test scenarios
Ask what happens if a chokepoint closes for three months, a key input faces export controls, or a supplier country is sanctioned. In 2026 each has happened: Hormuz has been effectively closed since Feb 28, and Chinese export controls cover several critical minerals.
Act on the results
Dual source critical parts, hold buffer stock, add routing flexibility to contracts and set triggers to act early.
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Related chokepoints
Chokepoint explainer
Strait of HormuzThe Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and OmanRead the explainer →Chokepoint explainer
Bab el-Mandeb StraitThe Red Sea's southern gate, between Yemen and DjiboutiRead the explainer →Chokepoint explainer
Strait of MalaccaThe main sea lane from the Indian Ocean to East AsiaRead the explainer →Related country risk assessments
Frequently asked questions
How often should a supply chain risk assessment be done?
A full assessment yearly, with priority risks reviewed monthly, or weekly during a crisis.
What is the difference between supply chain risk assessment and management?
Assessment identifies and ranks risks; management is the ongoing work of monitoring and reducing them.
Which geopolitical risks matter most for supply chains in 2026?
The Hormuz closure, Red Sea routing, sanctions on energy and shipping, critical mineral export controls and Taiwan's concentration in advanced chips.
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