Supply chain and energy
Food supply chain risk from the Hormuz closure
The Hormuz closure disrupts 20% to 30% of traded fertilizer. What that means for 2027 harvests, food prices and food businesses.
Guide
Supply chain and energyLast updated
3 minute read
By Zed Three analysts
Short answer
The biggest food supply chain risk in late 2026 is fertilizer. The FAO says the Hormuz closure disrupts roughly 20% to 30% of traded fertilizer, including 30% to 35% of global urea exports and about half of sulfur exports. Delayed fertilizer use can cut yields and tighten food supplies from late 2026 into 2027.
Last updated
Why Hormuz matters for food
Gulf producers export urea and sulfur, which is used to make phosphate fertilizer. Lost Gulf supply and higher natural gas costs push fertilizer prices up, and farmers who apply less fertilizer harvest less.
Other pressures
Higher energy, freight and processing costs feed through to food prices, and the Black Sea, a major grain export route, remains a war risk area. A worsening security situation there over the summer reduced bulk exports from Ukraine and Russia.
What food and agriculture businesses can do
Secure fertilizer and key input supply early, diversify origins for grains and oilseeds, watch forecasts for the 2027 crop, and build price ranges into contracts.
What happens next?
We assess it is likely that fertilizer prices stay well above pre-war levels through the 2027 northern spring planting season.
We assess it is likely that global food prices rise over the next 6 months.
Likelihood ranges are Zed Three editorial judgments as of Nov 2, 2026, not advice.
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Frequently asked questions
How does the Strait of Hormuz affect fertilizer?
Gulf states export large shares of the world's urea and sulfur, which mostly leave through Hormuz.
Will food prices rise because of the Hormuz closure?
The FAO warns that a closure lasting three months or more risks major food price effects, and the closure has now lasted more than eight months.
Which countries are most exposed?
Import dependent countries in Africa, South Asia and the Middle East, and farmers relying on Gulf urea.
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