Armed conflict and political violenceHigh
Frequent armed violence is reported in parts of the country.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Eritrea political and security risk assessment
Eritrea carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 39 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
39of 100
Guarded
Band 2 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Africa
Eritrea
What is the political and security risk in Eritrea right now?
Eritrea carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 39 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
What are the main risks of operating in Eritrea?
Staff movement and duty of careElevated
Foreign governments advise a high degree of caution, with some regional warnings.
Protest and civil unrestGuarded
Protests occur but rarely disrupt operations.
Chokepoint exposure
Bab el-Mandeb StraitThe Red Sea's southern gate, between Yemen and DjiboutiRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Eritrea?
Eritrea moved up 1 this week and rose 9 points over the last 12 weeks, from 30 to 39.
- Protest and riot reporting up week on week
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Eritrea stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 1 point from the Elevated band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade routes for Eritrea are exposed to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, so disruption there feeds straight into freight time and cost.
Operating conditions are generally normal, with localized risks to plan around.
Key facts
Population3.6 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Eritrea threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Eritrea for business?
Eritrea carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 39 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Eritrea?
The main risk drivers are armed conflict and political violence (high); staff movement and duty of care (elevated); protest and civil unrest (guarded). Frequent armed violence is reported in parts of the country.
What is the outlook for Eritrea?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Eritrea stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 1 point from the Elevated band.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Eritrea?
Eritrea is exposed to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Red Sea's southern gate, between Yemen and Djibouti.
How often is the Eritrea risk assessment updated?
The Eritrea threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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