Protest and civil unrestSevere
Protest and unrest activity is very high and can disrupt cities and transport.
Country risk assessment ยท Middle East
Azerbaijan political and security risk assessment
Azerbaijan carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 34 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
34of 100
Guarded
Band 2 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Middle East
Azerbaijan
What is the political and security risk in Azerbaijan right now?
Azerbaijan carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 34 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is steady. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings and persistent protest activity.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 1.4% in 2025 with inflation at 5.6%.
What are the main risks of operating in Azerbaijan?
Staff movement and duty of careElevated
Foreign governments advise a high degree of caution, with some regional warnings.
Armed conflict and political violenceGuarded
Armed violence is occasional and mostly localized.
What has changed recently in Azerbaijan?
Azerbaijan moved unchanged this week and rose 6 points over the last 12 weeks, from 28 to 34.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that Azerbaijan stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 6 points from the Elevated band.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Fuels make up 86% of goods exports (2025 data), so security events can move energy supply and prices.
Trade equals 80% of GDP (2025 data). Supply chain exposure is mainly to regional and global shocks rather than local events.
Operating conditions are generally normal, with localized risks to plan around.
Key facts
GDPUS$75.9 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth1.4%Latest data, 2025
Inflation5.6%Latest data, 2025
Trade80% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Fuel exports86% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population10.2 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Azerbaijan threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Azerbaijan for business?
Azerbaijan carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 34 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Azerbaijan?
The main risk drivers are protest and civil unrest (severe); staff movement and duty of care (elevated); armed conflict and political violence (guarded). Protest and unrest activity is very high and can disrupt cities and transport.
What is the outlook for Azerbaijan?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that Azerbaijan stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 6 points from the Elevated band.
How often is the Azerbaijan risk assessment updated?
The Azerbaijan threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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