Staff movement and duty of careSevere
Foreign governments warn against all travel, the highest level of warning.
Country risk assessment ยท Middle East
Iraq political and security risk assessment
Iraq carries a high level of political and security risk for business. It scores 66 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 4 of 5), down 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
66of 100
High
Band 4 of 5
▼ Down 1 on last week
Middle East
Iraq
What is the political and security risk in Iraq right now?
Iraq carries a high level of political and security risk for business. It scores 66 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 4 of 5), down 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP contracted 2.2% in 2025 with inflation at 0.3%.
What are the main risks of operating in Iraq?
Armed conflict and political violenceHigh
Frequent armed violence is reported in parts of the country.
Protest and civil unrestElevated
Protests are persistent but usually manageable with planning.
Chokepoint exposure
Strait of HormuzThe Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and OmanRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Iraq?
Iraq moved down 1 this week and fell 1 point over the last 12 weeks, from 67 to 66.
- Reporting of armed clashes and attacks down 6% week on week
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that Iraq stays in the High band through the end of December. It sits 4 points from the Severe band.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade routes for Iraq are exposed to the Strait of Hormuz, so disruption there feeds straight into freight time and cost.
Fuels make up 99% of goods exports (2024 data), so security events can move energy supply and prices.
Trade equals 77% of GDP (2024 data). Map tier one and tier two suppliers here and hold buffer stock for critical inputs.
Operations need dedicated security support and contingency plans.
Key facts
GDPUS$254.4 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth-2.2%Latest data, 2025
Inflation0.3%Latest data, 2025
Trade77% of GDPLatest data, 2024
Fuel exports99% of goods exportsLatest data, 2024
Population47.0 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Iraq threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Iraq for business?
Iraq carries a high level of political and security risk for business. It scores 66 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 4 of 5), down 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Iraq?
The main risk drivers are staff movement and duty of care (severe); armed conflict and political violence (high); protest and civil unrest (elevated). Foreign governments warn against all travel, the highest level of warning.
What is the outlook for Iraq?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that Iraq stays in the High band through the end of December. It sits 4 points from the Severe band.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Iraq?
Iraq is exposed to the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and Oman.
How often is the Iraq risk assessment updated?
The Iraq threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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