ConflictSevere
Israeli attacks across the south have been particularly intense since Oct 31, L'Orient Today reported.
Country risk assessment ยท Middle East
Lebanon political and security risk assessment
Lebanon sits in the Severe band. Israel has sharply increased strikes in southern Lebanon and threatens wider operations if Hezbollah joins a renewed Iran war. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
79of 100
Severe
Band 5 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Middle East
Lebanon
What is the political and security risk in Lebanon right now?
Lebanon sits in the Severe band. Israel has sharply increased strikes in southern Lebanon and threatens wider operations if Hezbollah joins a renewed Iran war.
Israeli media reported plans for a possible naval blockade of Beirut and Tripoli ports.
What are the main risks of operating in Lebanon?
MaritimeHigh
A naval blockade of Beirut and Tripoli was reported as an Israeli option.
GovernanceHigh
The government is under pressure to set up army checkpoints in Hezbollah areas.
What has changed recently in Lebanon?
Israeli threats of advancing as far as Saida and escalation in the south.
Lebanon's foreign minister called for full Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that full scale fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resumes within 3 months.
35 to 50%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Plan alternatives to Beirut port.
Southern Lebanon is unsafe for operations.
Banking constraints persist.
Key facts
GDPUS$26.0 billionLatest data, 2024
Real GDP growth-7.1%Latest data, 2024
Inflation14.6%Latest data, 2025
Trade82% of GDPLatest data, 2024
Population5.8 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Lebanon threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Lebanon for business?
Lebanon sits in the Severe band. Israel has sharply increased strikes in southern Lebanon and threatens wider operations if Hezbollah joins a renewed Iran war.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Lebanon?
The main risk drivers are conflict (severe); maritime (high); governance (high). Israeli attacks across the south have been particularly intense since Oct 31, L'Orient Today reported.
What is the outlook for Lebanon?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (35 to 50%) that full scale fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resumes within 3 months.
How often is the Lebanon risk assessment updated?
The Lebanon threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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