Regional conflictSevere
Israel has completed offensive and defensive preparations for a possible resumption of war with Iran, Kan News reported.
Country risk assessment ยท Middle East
Israel political and security risk assessment
Israel sits in the High band. A renewed US and Israeli war with Iran is a live possibility after the US midterms, and Israel has stepped up strikes in southern Lebanon. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
62of 100
High
Band 4 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Middle East
Israel
What is the political and security risk in Israel right now?
Israel sits in the High band. A renewed US and Israeli war with Iran is a live possibility after the US midterms, and Israel has stepped up strikes in southern Lebanon.
Israeli strikes in Gaza continue despite the October 2025 ceasefire largely halting major fighting.
What are the main risks of operating in Israel?
Lebanon frontHigh
Israel has sharply increased strikes in southern Lebanon and warned it could advance as far as Saida if Hezbollah joins a renewed Iran war.
GazaHigh
Israeli strikes killed eight people in Gaza on Nov 1.
Political stabilityElevated
Legislative elections have just concluded and coalition talks are underway.
Chokepoint exposure
Suez CanalEgypt's canal joining the Mediterranean and the Red SeaRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Israel?
Israeli strikes on Gaza killed eight people including a child.
Israeli media reported plans to seize Sour, Saida and Nabatieh if Hezbollah challenges the army, and a possible naval blockade of Beirut and Tripoli ports.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility of renewed US or Israeli strikes on Iran within 3 months.
35 to 55%
0%50%100%
We assess it is likely that Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon continue at or above current levels for the next month.
55 to 70%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Keep shelter and continuity plans current for missile alerts if the Iran war resumes.
Eastern Mediterranean ports could face disruption if fighting widens to Lebanon.
Limit non essential travel to northern Israel near the Lebanese border.
Key facts
GDPUS$610.8 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth2.9%Latest data, 2025
Inflation3%Latest data, 2025
Trade53% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population10.1 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Israel threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Israel for business?
Israel sits in the High band. A renewed US and Israeli war with Iran is a live possibility after the US midterms, and Israel has stepped up strikes in southern Lebanon.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Israel?
The main risk drivers are regional conflict (severe); lebanon front (high); gaza (high); political stability (elevated). Israel has completed offensive and defensive preparations for a possible resumption of war with Iran, Kan News reported.
What is the outlook for Israel?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (35 to 55%) of renewed US or Israeli strikes on Iran within 3 months.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Israel?
Israel is exposed to the Suez Canal. Egypt's canal joining the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.
How often is the Israel risk assessment updated?
The Israel threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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