Armed conflict and political violenceHigh
Frequent armed violence is reported in parts of the country.
Country risk assessment ยท Europe
Bulgaria political and security risk assessment
Bulgaria carries a low level of political and security risk for business. It scores 20 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 1 of 5), down 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
20of 100
Low
Band 1 of 5
▼ Down 1 on last week
Europe
Bulgaria
What is the political and security risk in Bulgaria right now?
Bulgaria carries a low level of political and security risk for business. It scores 20 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 1 of 5), down 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks.
Little changed at Low, with no standing risk flags.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 3.1% in 2025 with inflation at 4.6%.
What are the main risks of operating in Bulgaria?
Chokepoint exposure
Bosphorus and the Turkish StraitsThe Black Sea's only sea link to the worldRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Bulgaria?
Bulgaria moved down 1 this week and fell 6 points over the last 12 weeks, from 26 to 20.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that Bulgaria stays in the Low band through the end of December. It sits 5 points from the Guarded band.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade routes for Bulgaria are exposed to the Bosphorus and the Turkish Straits, so disruption there feeds straight into freight time and cost.
Trade equals 103% of GDP (2025 data). A highly open economy, so local disruption travels quickly through supplier networks.
Operating conditions are normal. Standard security precautions apply.
Key facts
GDPUS$130.8 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth3.1%Latest data, 2025
Inflation4.6%Latest data, 2025
Trade103% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Ores and metals15% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population6.4 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Bulgaria threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Bulgaria for business?
Bulgaria carries a low level of political and security risk for business. It scores 20 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 1 of 5), down 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Bulgaria?
The main risk drivers are armed conflict and political violence (high). Frequent armed violence is reported in parts of the country.
What is the outlook for Bulgaria?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that Bulgaria stays in the Low band through the end of December. It sits 5 points from the Guarded band.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Bulgaria?
Bulgaria is exposed to the Bosphorus and the Turkish Straits. The Black Sea's only sea link to the world.
How often is the Bulgaria risk assessment updated?
The Bulgaria threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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