ConflictSevere
The army has stepped up drone and air strikes on RSF positions in Darfur and Kordofan.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Sudan political and security risk assessment
Sudan sits in the Severe band. The war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces continues, with the army intensifying air strikes in Darfur and Kordofan. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
79of 100
Severe
Band 5 of 5
▼ Down 1 on last week
Africa
Sudan
What is the political and security risk in Sudan right now?
Sudan sits in the Severe band. The war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces continues, with the army intensifying air strikes in Darfur and Kordofan.
One year after the RSF captured El Fasher, the city is largely depopulated and humanitarian access is severely restricted.
What are the main risks of operating in Sudan?
HumanitarianSevere
Fewer than 70,000 people remain in El Fasher, and famine risk is high.
GovernanceSevere
Rival authorities control different parts of the country.
What has changed recently in Sudan?
Amnesty International reported unlawful killings, detention and torture of civilians in El Fasher one year after its capture.
Human Rights Watch marked one year since El Fasher fell to the RSF.
The army intensified air strikes on the RSF in Darfur and Kordofan.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is highly unlikely that a nationwide ceasefire takes hold within 3 months.
under 10%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Most commercial activity outside army held areas is not viable.
Port Sudan remains the main gateway; plan for delays and security checks.
Screen counterparties for links to armed groups.
Key facts
GDPUS$60.2 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth3.1%Latest data, 2025
Inflation138.8%Latest data, 2022
Trade2% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population51.7 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Sudan threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Sudan for business?
Sudan sits in the Severe band. The war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces continues, with the army intensifying air strikes in Darfur and Kordofan.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Sudan?
The main risk drivers are conflict (severe); humanitarian (severe); governance (severe). The army has stepped up drone and air strikes on RSF positions in Darfur and Kordofan.
What is the outlook for Sudan?
We assess it is highly unlikely (under 10%) that a nationwide ceasefire takes hold within 3 months.
How often is the Sudan risk assessment updated?
The Sudan threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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