Staff movement and duty of careSevere
Foreign governments warn against all travel, the highest level of warning.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Somalia political and security risk assessment
Somalia carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 77 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
77of 100
Severe
Band 5 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Africa
Somalia
What is the political and security risk in Somalia right now?
Somalia carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 77 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings, sustained lethal conflict and heavy reporting of armed violence.
What are the main risks of operating in Somalia?
Armed conflict and political violenceSevere
Sustained lethal conflict or armed violence is being reported.
Protest and civil unrestHigh
Protest activity is high and periodically disrupts business districts and roads.
Chokepoint exposure
Bab el-Mandeb StraitThe Red Sea's southern gate, between Yemen and DjiboutiRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Somalia?
Somalia moved up 1 this week and rose 5 points over the last 12 weeks, from 72 to 77.
- Reporting of armed clashes and attacks up 271% week on week
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is highly likely that Somalia stays in the Severe band through the end of December.
80 to 90%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade routes for Somalia are exposed to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, so disruption there feeds straight into freight time and cost.
Trade equals 128% of GDP (2025 data). A highly open economy, so local disruption travels quickly through supplier networks.
Only essential operations with specialist security support are advisable.
Key facts
GDPUS$13.0 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth3%Latest data, 2025
Trade128% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population19.7 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Somalia threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Somalia for business?
Somalia carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 77 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Somalia?
The main risk drivers are staff movement and duty of care (severe); armed conflict and political violence (severe); protest and civil unrest (high). Foreign governments warn against all travel, the highest level of warning.
What is the outlook for Somalia?
We assess it is highly likely (80 to 90%) that Somalia stays in the Severe band through the end of December.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Somalia?
Somalia is exposed to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Red Sea's southern gate, between Yemen and Djibouti.
How often is the Somalia risk assessment updated?
The Somalia threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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