Armed conflict and political violenceSevere
Sustained lethal conflict or armed violence is being reported.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Ethiopia political and security risk assessment
Ethiopia carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 74 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
74of 100
Severe
Band 5 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Africa
Ethiopia
What is the political and security risk in Ethiopia right now?
Ethiopia carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 74 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is steady. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings, sustained lethal conflict and heavy reporting of armed violence.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 9.8% in 2025 with inflation at 13.2%.
What are the main risks of operating in Ethiopia?
Staff movement and duty of careHigh
Foreign governments advise against non essential travel to the country or large parts of it.
Protest and civil unrestHigh
Protest activity is high and periodically disrupts business districts and roads.
What has changed recently in Ethiopia?
Ethiopia moved unchanged this week and rose 10 points over the last 12 weeks, from 64 to 74.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that Ethiopia stays in the Severe band through the end of December. It sits 5 points from the High band.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Food makes up 80% of goods exports (2023 data), so harvest, port and road disruption matter for buyers.
Trade equals 33% of GDP (2025 data). Map tier one and tier two suppliers here and hold buffer stock for critical inputs.
Only essential operations with specialist security support are advisable.
Key facts
GDPUS$126.4 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth9.8%Latest data, 2025
Inflation13.2%Latest data, 2025
Trade33% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Food exports80% of goods exportsLatest data, 2023
Population135.5 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Ethiopia threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Ethiopia for business?
Ethiopia carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 74 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Ethiopia?
The main risk drivers are armed conflict and political violence (severe); staff movement and duty of care (high); protest and civil unrest (high). Sustained lethal conflict or armed violence is being reported.
What is the outlook for Ethiopia?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that Ethiopia stays in the Severe band through the end of December. It sits 5 points from the High band.
How often is the Ethiopia risk assessment updated?
The Ethiopia threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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