TerrorismSevere
ISWAP fighters attacked a military base in Kukawa, Borno, killing 10 soldiers.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Nigeria political and security risk assessment
Nigeria sits in the High band. Islamic State West Africa Province attacks in the northeast and bandit violence in the north and center are intensifying. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
65of 100
High
Band 4 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Africa
Nigeria
What is the political and security risk in Nigeria right now?
Nigeria sits in the High band. Islamic State West Africa Province attacks in the northeast and bandit violence in the north and center are intensifying.
Kidnapping and armed attacks remain the main security risks for staff and operations outside major cities.
What are the main risks of operating in Nigeria?
Banditry and kidnappingHigh
Bandits killed at least 62 people in Binnari, Taraba.
Security responseElevated
The military said it rescued 349 kidnap victims and made 333 arrests in October.
What has changed recently in Nigeria?
ISWAP attacked a military base in Borno, killing 10 soldiers.
A gang attack killed at least 62 people in a community in northeastern Nigeria.
Air strikes in Borno and Adamawa reportedly killed 103 ISWAP fighters.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is highly likely that mass casualty attacks continue in the northeast within the next month.
80 to 95%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Use secure transport and kidnap response plans outside Lagos and Abuja.
Expect road insecurity on northern freight routes.
Watch for attacks on oil and gas infrastructure.
Key facts
GDPUS$290.8 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth4%Latest data, 2025
Inflation23%Latest data, 2025
Fuel exports86% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population237.5 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Nigeria threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Nigeria for business?
Nigeria sits in the High band. Islamic State West Africa Province attacks in the northeast and bandit violence in the north and center are intensifying.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Nigeria?
The main risk drivers are terrorism (severe); banditry and kidnapping (high); security response (elevated). ISWAP fighters attacked a military base in Kukawa, Borno, killing 10 soldiers.
What is the outlook for Nigeria?
We assess it is highly likely (80 to 95%) that mass casualty attacks continue in the northeast within the next month.
How often is the Nigeria risk assessment updated?
The Nigeria threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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