Staff movement and duty of careElevated
Foreign governments advise a high degree of caution, with some regional warnings.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Guinea-Bissau political and security risk assessment
Guinea-Bissau carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 25 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
25of 100
Guarded
Band 2 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Africa
Guinea-Bissau
What is the political and security risk in Guinea-Bissau right now?
Guinea-Bissau carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 25 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is steady. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 5.8% in 2025 with inflation at 0.9%.
What are the main risks of operating in Guinea-Bissau?
Armed conflict and political violenceGuarded
Armed violence is occasional and mostly localized.
Protest and civil unrestGuarded
Protests occur but rarely disrupt operations.
What has changed recently in Guinea-Bissau?
Guinea-Bissau moved unchanged this week and rose 5 points over the last 12 weeks, from 20 to 25.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Guinea-Bissau stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 1 point from the Low band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade equals 41% of GDP (2025 data). Supply chain exposure is mainly to regional and global shocks rather than local events.
Operating conditions are generally normal, with localized risks to plan around.
Key facts
GDPUS$2.5 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth5.8%Latest data, 2025
Inflation0.9%Latest data, 2025
Trade41% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population2.2 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Guinea-Bissau threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Guinea-Bissau for business?
Guinea-Bissau carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 25 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Guinea-Bissau?
The main risk drivers are staff movement and duty of care (elevated); armed conflict and political violence (guarded); protest and civil unrest (guarded). Foreign governments advise a high degree of caution, with some regional warnings.
What is the outlook for Guinea-Bissau?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Guinea-Bissau stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 1 point from the Low band.
How often is the Guinea-Bissau risk assessment updated?
The Guinea-Bissau threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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