Protest and civil unrestSevere
Protest and unrest activity is very high and can disrupt cities and transport.
Country risk assessment ยท Europe
Italy political and security risk assessment
Italy carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 36 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
36of 100
Guarded
Band 2 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Europe
Italy
What is the political and security risk in Italy right now?
Italy carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 36 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings and persistent protest activity.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 0.5% in 2025 with inflation at 1.5%.
What are the main risks of operating in Italy?
Armed conflict and political violenceElevated
Armed violence is reported regularly in some areas.
Staff movement and duty of careGuarded
Foreign governments advise normal to increased caution.
What has changed recently in Italy?
Italy moved up 1 this week and rose 6 points over the last 12 weeks, from 30 to 36.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that Italy stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 4 points from the Elevated band.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade equals 63% of GDP (2025 data). Supply chain exposure is mainly to regional and global shocks rather than local events.
Operating conditions are generally normal, with localized risks to plan around.
Key facts
GDPUS$2.55 trillionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth0.5%Latest data, 2025
Inflation1.5%Latest data, 2025
Trade63% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population58.9 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Italy threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Italy for business?
Italy carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 36 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Italy?
The main risk drivers are protest and civil unrest (severe); armed conflict and political violence (elevated); staff movement and duty of care (guarded). Protest and unrest activity is very high and can disrupt cities and transport.
What is the outlook for Italy?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that Italy stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 4 points from the Elevated band.
How often is the Italy risk assessment updated?
The Italy threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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