Protest and civil unrestHigh
Protest activity is high and periodically disrupts business districts and roads.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Kenya political and security risk assessment
Kenya carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 44 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
44of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Africa
Kenya
What is the political and security risk in Kenya right now?
Kenya carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 44 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 4.6% in 2025 with inflation at 4.1%.
What are the main risks of operating in Kenya?
Staff movement and duty of careElevated
Foreign governments advise a high degree of caution, with some regional warnings.
Armed conflict and political violenceElevated
Armed violence is reported regularly in some areas.
What has changed recently in Kenya?
Kenya moved up 1 this week and fell 4 points over the last 12 weeks, from 48 to 44.
- Reporting of armed clashes and attacks up 18% week on week
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that Kenya stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 5 points from the Guarded band.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Food makes up 51% of goods exports (2025 data), so harvest, port and road disruption matter for buyers.
Trade equals 38% of GDP (2025 data). Map tier one and tier two suppliers here and hold buffer stock for critical inputs.
Operations continue but need active security planning in affected areas.
Key facts
GDPUS$135.9 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth4.6%Latest data, 2025
Inflation4.1%Latest data, 2025
Trade38% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Food exports51% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population57.5 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Kenya threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Kenya for business?
Kenya carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 44 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Kenya?
The main risk drivers are protest and civil unrest (high); staff movement and duty of care (elevated); armed conflict and political violence (elevated). Protest activity is high and periodically disrupts business districts and roads.
What is the outlook for Kenya?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that Kenya stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 5 points from the Guarded band.
How often is the Kenya risk assessment updated?
The Kenya threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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