Protest and civil unrestGuarded
Protests occur but rarely disrupt operations.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Madagascar political and security risk assessment
Madagascar carries a low level of political and security risk for business. It scores 22 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 1 of 5), up 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
22of 100
Low
Band 1 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Africa
Madagascar
What is the political and security risk in Madagascar right now?
Madagascar carries a low level of political and security risk for business. It scores 22 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 1 of 5), up 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 3% in 2025 with inflation at 8.1%.
What are the main risks of operating in Madagascar?
Staff movement and duty of careGuarded
Foreign governments advise normal to increased caution.
Armed conflict and political violenceGuarded
Armed violence is occasional and mostly localized.
What has changed recently in Madagascar?
Madagascar moved up 1 this week and rose 2 points over the last 12 weeks, from 20 to 22.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Madagascar stays in the Low band through the end of December. It sits 3 points from the Guarded band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Ores and metals make up 33% of goods exports (2024 data), so mining regions and export corridors are the exposure to watch.
Trade equals 54% of GDP (2025 data). Supply chain exposure is mainly to regional and global shocks rather than local events.
Operating conditions are normal. Standard security precautions apply.
Key facts
GDPUS$19.6 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth3%Latest data, 2025
Inflation8.1%Latest data, 2025
Trade54% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Ores and metals33% of goods exportsLatest data, 2024
Food exports30% of goods exportsLatest data, 2024
Population32.7 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Madagascar threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Madagascar for business?
Madagascar carries a low level of political and security risk for business. It scores 22 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 1 of 5), up 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Madagascar?
The main risk drivers are protest and civil unrest (guarded); staff movement and duty of care (guarded); armed conflict and political violence (guarded). Protests occur but rarely disrupt operations.
What is the outlook for Madagascar?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Madagascar stays in the Low band through the end of December. It sits 3 points from the Guarded band.
How often is the Madagascar risk assessment updated?
The Madagascar threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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