Armed conflict and political violenceElevated
Armed violence is reported regularly in some areas.
Country risk assessment ยท Africa
Malawi political and security risk assessment
Malawi carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 26 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
26of 100
Guarded
Band 2 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Africa
Malawi
What is the political and security risk in Malawi right now?
Malawi carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 26 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 1.9% in 2025 with inflation at 28.4%.
What are the main risks of operating in Malawi?
Protest and civil unrestGuarded
Protests occur but rarely disrupt operations.
Staff movement and duty of careGuarded
Foreign governments advise normal to increased caution.
What has changed recently in Malawi?
Malawi moved up 1 this week and rose 8 points over the last 12 weeks, from 18 to 26.
- Protest and riot reporting up week on week
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Malawi stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 2 points from the Low band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Food makes up 93% of goods exports (2025 data), so harvest, port and road disruption matter for buyers.
Trade equals 39% of GDP (2025 data). Supply chain exposure is mainly to regional and global shocks rather than local events.
Operating conditions are generally normal, with localized risks to plan around.
Key facts
GDPUS$14.9 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth1.9%Latest data, 2025
Inflation28.4%Latest data, 2025
Trade39% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Food exports93% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population22.2 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Malawi threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Malawi for business?
Malawi carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 26 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Malawi?
The main risk drivers are armed conflict and political violence (elevated); protest and civil unrest (guarded); staff movement and duty of care (guarded). Armed violence is reported regularly in some areas.
What is the outlook for Malawi?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Malawi stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 2 points from the Low band.
How often is the Malawi risk assessment updated?
The Malawi threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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