EconomyElevated
Inflation remains near 30% and the central bank warns it will tighten again if needed.
Country risk assessment ยท Middle East
Turkey political and security risk assessment
Turkey sits in the Elevated band. The central bank cut its policy rate to 36% as inflation fell to 29.73%, while an investment fund crisis weighs on Borsa Istanbul. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
41of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▼ Down 1 on last week
Middle East
Turkey
What is the political and security risk in Turkey right now?
Turkey sits in the Elevated band. The central bank cut its policy rate to 36% as inflation fell to 29.73%, while an investment fund crisis weighs on Borsa Istanbul.
Turkey also plays a key role in Black Sea shipping and is working with Ukraine on a limited maritime ceasefire.
What are the main risks of operating in Turkey?
MarketsElevated
Regulators extended compliance deadlines to calm a stock sell off linked to investment funds, AGBI reported.
RegionalElevated
Turkey sits beside the Black Sea, Syria and Iraq conflict zones.
Chokepoint exposure
Bosphorus and the Turkish StraitsThe Black Sea's only sea link to the worldRead the explainer →What has changed recently in Turkey?
The central bank cut its policy rate to 36%.
Turkey's market regulator struggled to halt a stock sell off.
Ukraine and Turkey advanced cooperation on a limited Black Sea ceasefire.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that annual inflation stays above 25% through January 2027.
55 to 70%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Hedge lira exposure and watch rate decisions.
Bosphorus transits continue normally.
Market volatility is elevated.
Key facts
GDPUS$1.60 trillionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth3.6%Latest data, 2025
Inflation34.9%Latest data, 2025
Trade50% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population85.9 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Turkey threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Turkey for business?
Turkey sits in the Elevated band. The central bank cut its policy rate to 36% as inflation fell to 29.73%, while an investment fund crisis weighs on Borsa Istanbul.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Turkey?
The main risk drivers are economy (elevated); markets (elevated); regional (elevated). Inflation remains near 30% and the central bank warns it will tighten again if needed.
What is the outlook for Turkey?
We assess it is likely (55 to 70%) that annual inflation stays above 25% through January 2027.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for Turkey?
Turkey is exposed to the Bosphorus and the Turkish Straits. The Black Sea's only sea link to the world.
How often is the Turkey risk assessment updated?
The Turkey threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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