MaritimeSevere
Attacks hit tankers and an LNG carrier in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf in late October.
Country risk assessment ยท Middle East
United Arab Emirates political and security risk assessment
The UAE sits in the Guarded band, but its ports and shipping are directly exposed to the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the US naval blockade of Iran. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
27of 100
Guarded
Band 2 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Middle East
United Arab Emirates
What is the political and security risk in United Arab Emirates right now?
The UAE sits in the Guarded band, but its ports and shipping are directly exposed to the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the US naval blockade of Iran.
Flight disruptions and a tanker oil spill have followed regional attacks.
What are the main risks of operating in United Arab Emirates?
Regional conflictElevated
The UAE faces spillover risk if the US and Iran war resumes.
Domestic stabilityLow
Internal security and governance are stable.
Chokepoint exposure
Strait of HormuzThe Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and OmanRead the explainer →What has changed recently in United Arab Emirates?
Cleanup continued after a spill from the tanker GEM NO. 2, and flights faced disruption amid US and Iran tensions.
A new wave of attacks hit tankers and an LNG carrier in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is unlikely that normal commercial traffic through Hormuz resumes within the next month.
20 to 35%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Fujairah and Khor Fakkan avoid Hormuz but remain close to the risk area.
Expect intermittent flight disruptions if hostilities resume.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi operations are normal.
Key facts
GDPUS$552.3 billionLatest data, 2024
Real GDP growth4%Latest data, 2024
Inflation1.3%Latest data, 2025
Trade199% of GDPLatest data, 2023
Fuel exports68% of goods exportsLatest data, 2023
Population11.5 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the United Arab Emirates threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in United Arab Emirates for business?
The UAE sits in the Guarded band, but its ports and shipping are directly exposed to the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the US naval blockade of Iran.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in United Arab Emirates?
The main risk drivers are maritime (severe); regional conflict (elevated); domestic stability (low). Attacks hit tankers and an LNG carrier in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf in late October.
What is the outlook for United Arab Emirates?
We assess it is unlikely (20 to 35%) that normal commercial traffic through Hormuz resumes within the next month.
Which shipping chokepoints matter for United Arab Emirates?
United Arab Emirates is exposed to the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and Oman.
How often is the United Arab Emirates risk assessment updated?
The United Arab Emirates threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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