Political and geopolitical risk
Export controls: what businesses need to know in 2026
What export controls are, how US rules reach foreign made goods, the Nov 10, 2026 ownership rule deadline, China's mineral licensing and how Canada's permit system works.
Guide
Political and geopolitical riskLast updated
3 minute read
By Zed Three analysts
Short answer
Export controls are government rules that restrict the export of sensitive goods, software and technology, especially items with military or dual uses. Whether a licence is needed depends on what the item is, where it is going, who will use it and how. In 2026 the biggest changes involve US ownership rules and Chinese licensing of critical minerals.
Last updated
Export controls and sanctions are not the same
Sanctions target countries, governments, companies and people, and can bar almost any dealing with them. Export controls target items: they decide which goods, software and technology need a licence for which destinations, end users and end uses. The two overlap, and a single deal can trigger both.
Controls cover more than physical shipments. Sending technical drawings by email, giving a foreign engineer access to controlled source code or uploading designs to a shared server can all count as exports.
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How US rules reach beyond the US
US export rules follow US items around the world. Goods made outside the US can still be caught if they contain more than a set share of controlled US content, generally 25%, falling to 10% for exports to certain embargoed or high risk destinations. Some sensitive items have no minimum at all, and special rules cover foreign products made with certain US technology or equipment.
The Entity List names foreign companies that need a licence for almost any US item, and licences for them are often denied. That is why companies far from the US screen customers and suppliers against US lists.
The Nov 10, 2026 deadline: the 50% ownership rule
On Sept 30, 2025, the US extended Entity List and military end user restrictions to companies owned 50% or more by listed parties. The rule was suspended from Nov 10, 2025 to Nov 9, 2026 under the US and China trade arrangement, and is set to be reimposed on Nov 10, 2026 unless the suspension is extended.
Both governments have said the arrangement is extended to Jan 10, 2027, and a further suspension is expected. As of Nov 4, 2026, no formal extension notice had been published, so the Nov 10 date still stands on paper. Companies should map the ownership of customers and distributors now, so they are ready whichever way the notice falls.
China's export licensing of critical minerals
China's sweeping rare earth export measures announced on Oct 9, 2025 were suspended for one year under the same arrangement. China has said that suspension also runs to Jan 10, 2027, though as of Nov 1, 2026 the published legal notice still carried the November date. Licensing requirements China introduced earlier on several critical minerals remain in force.
For manufacturers, that means supply of magnets, battery materials and some specialty metals still depends on Chinese licence approvals, and a breakdown in talks could bring tighter rules back quickly.
How Canada's export controls work
Canada controls exports under the Export and Import Permits Act and its Export Control List, administered by Global Affairs Canada. Most listed items need a permit for every destination except the US, while some, marked for all destinations, need a permit even for the US. Goods passing through the US on the way to a third country still need a Canadian permit.
US origin goods leaving Canada also need a permit, and a general permit covers most destinations. Goods exported to the US become subject to US export rules from that point.
Building a practical compliance check
Classify each product, part, software and technology against the relevant control lists. Screen every party in the deal, including owners, against sanctions and restricted party lists. Ask about end use and end user, and watch for red flags such as unusual routing, reluctance to share end use details or payment from unrelated parties.
Keep records, train sales and engineering staff, and set triggers for review when rules change, as they will on or around Nov 10.
What happens next?
We assess it is likely that the US suspension of its 50% ownership rule is formally extended to Jan 10, 2027.
We assess it is unlikely that the 50% ownership rule takes effect and stays in force through the end of December.
Likelihood ranges are Zed Three editorial judgments as of Nov 4, 2026, not advice.
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Frequently asked questions
What is a dual use item?
A good, software or technology with both civilian and military uses, such as certain chips, sensors, machine tools or encryption software.
What is the difference between the EAR and ITAR?
The EAR covers commercial and dual use items and is run by the US Commerce Department. ITAR covers defense articles and services on the US Munitions List and is run by the US State Department.
Do export controls apply to software and technology?
Yes. Software, technical data and know how can all be controlled, including when shared electronically or with foreign nationals.
What is the Entity List?
A US list of foreign companies, institutions and people that need a licence to receive almost any US item.
Do Canadian companies need a permit to export to the US?
Usually not, but items marked for all destinations on Canada's Export Control List need a permit even for the US.
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