Natural hazardsHigh
Cyclone Arnab brought winds gusting to 150 kmph and over 200 mm of rain at dozens of weather stations in northern Andhra Pradesh.
Country risk assessment ยท Asia
India political and security risk assessment
India rose 5 points into the High band this week, driven by Cyclone Arnab, which crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast on Oct 28 as a very severe cyclonic storm. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
55of 100
High
Band 4 of 5
▲ Up 5 on last week
Asia
India
What is the political and security risk in India right now?
India rose 5 points into the High band this week, driven by Cyclone Arnab, which crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast on Oct 28 as a very severe cyclonic storm.
The storm killed five people in Andhra Pradesh, forced mass evacuations across Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, and damaged crops, roads, houses and power lines. A central government team is assessing damage the state puts at around 4,526 crore rupees.
What are the main risks of operating in India?
Infrastructure and supply chainElevated
Around 15,000 electricity poles were damaged, and state officials reported 2,491 km of state roads damaged across 12 districts.
What has changed recently in India?
Cyclone Arnab crossed the coast near Narsapur, West Godavari, with sustained winds of 125 to 135 kmph. More than 84,000 people were evacuated in Andhra Pradesh.
Chief Minister Naidu confirmed five deaths and announced a relief and compensation package.
Naidu asked the visiting central team to speed up assistance, with preliminary losses put at around 4,526 crore rupees.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that India's score eases back toward the Elevated band within one to two months as recovery proceeds, barring a new major storm.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Expect knock on delays at east coast ports near the storm track, including Kakinada and Visakhapatnam, while roads and power are restored.
Suppliers in coastal Andhra Pradesh, especially in agriculture and aquaculture, may face disruption for weeks.
Check road and power conditions in Konaseema and West Godavari districts before visits.
Key facts
GDPUS$3.96 trillionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth7.6%Latest data, 2025
Inflation2.4%Latest data, 2025
Trade46% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Fuel exports13% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population1463.9 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the India threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in India for business?
India rose 5 points into the High band this week, driven by Cyclone Arnab, which crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast on Oct 28 as a very severe cyclonic storm.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in India?
The main risk drivers are natural hazards (high); infrastructure and supply chain (elevated). Cyclone Arnab brought winds gusting to 150 kmph and over 200 mm of rain at dozens of weather stations in northern Andhra Pradesh.
What is the outlook for India?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that India's score eases back toward the Elevated band within one to two months as recovery proceeds, barring a new major storm.
How often is the India risk assessment updated?
The India threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
Custom reports
Need a deeper read on India?
Zed Three builds custom threat and risk reports around your people, suppliers and routes.
Free weekday briefing
Get Chokepoint free
The five stories that move markets, supply chains and deals, each with the so what worked out. Five minutes, every weekday morning.