Organized crime and extortionSevere
Roughly one in two companies suffered a crime in the past year, and extortion has moved into control of goods distribution in Sonora, Colima and Michoacan.
Country risk assessment ยท Americas
Mexico political and security risk assessment
Mexico sits in the High band. Organized crime is the main business risk: cartel violence, extortion and cargo theft raise operating and freight costs in several states. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
59of 100
High
Band 4 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Americas
Mexico
What is the political and security risk in Mexico right now?
Mexico sits in the High band. Organized crime is the main business risk: cartel violence, extortion and cargo theft raise operating and freight costs in several states.
Mexico's main business lobby says crime, a judicial overhaul and tougher tax enforcement now weigh more on investment than US tariffs, though Section 232 duties still hit autos, steel and aluminum.
What are the main risks of operating in Mexico?
Cargo and road securityHigh
Business groups estimate road violence raises operating costs by 10 to 30% in affected regions, with 2,255 cargo truck robberies recorded this year to August.
Regulatory and legalElevated
Elected judges under the judicial overhaul and stricter tax enforcement reduce predictability for investors.
Trade policyElevated
US Section 232 tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum remain in force while USMCA renewal is unresolved.
What has changed recently in Mexico?
Cartel roadblocks and gunfire hit Matamoros and other parts of Tamaulipas after federal forces detained a senior Gulf Cartel figure. Six people died.
The defense ministry deployed 450 troops and two helicopters to Matamoros and nearby municipalities.
The interior ministry agreed to negotiate road security, tax and infrastructure demands with freight carriers after protests in several states on Oct 26.
The head of the Business Coordinating Council said domestic crime, courts and taxes now outweigh US trade worries for investment.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is highly likely that cartel retaliation against high profile arrests causes further road blockades in northern border states within 3 months.
80 to 90%
0%50%100%
We assess it is unlikely that US Section 232 tariffs on Mexican autos, steel or aluminum are lowered within 3 months.
15 to 30%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Plan longer routes, convoy timing and buffer stock for cargo through Tamaulipas, Michoacan, Guanajuato and Jalisco.
Review extortion response plans and driver protocols for border crossings such as Matamoros and Reynosa.
Price in legal and tax uncertainty on new projects alongside tariff exposure.
Key facts
GDPUS$1.83 trillionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth0.6%Latest data, 2025
Inflation3.8%Latest data, 2025
Trade80% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Population131.9 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Mexico threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Mexico for business?
Mexico sits in the High band. Organized crime is the main business risk: cartel violence, extortion and cargo theft raise operating and freight costs in several states.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Mexico?
The main risk drivers are organized crime and extortion (severe); cargo and road security (high); regulatory and legal (elevated); trade policy (elevated). Roughly one in two companies suffered a crime in the past year, and extortion has moved into control of goods distribution in Sonora, Colima and Michoacan.
What is the outlook for Mexico?
We assess it is highly likely (80 to 90%) that cartel retaliation against high profile arrests causes further road blockades in northern border states within 3 months.
How often is the Mexico risk assessment updated?
The Mexico threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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