Staff movement and duty of careSevere
Foreign governments warn against all travel, the highest level of warning.
Country risk assessment ยท Asia
Afghanistan political and security risk assessment
Afghanistan carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 74 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
74of 100
Severe
Band 5 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Asia
Afghanistan
What is the political and security risk in Afghanistan right now?
Afghanistan carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 74 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is steady. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings, sustained lethal conflict and heavy reporting of armed violence.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 1.9% in 2024 with inflation at -6.6%.
What are the main risks of operating in Afghanistan?
Armed conflict and political violenceSevere
Sustained lethal conflict or armed violence is being reported.
Protest and civil unrestGuarded
Protests occur but rarely disrupt operations.
What has changed recently in Afghanistan?
Afghanistan moved unchanged this week and rose 2 points over the last 12 weeks, from 72 to 74.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is likely that Afghanistan stays in the Severe band through the end of December. It sits 5 points from the High band.
60 to 75%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade equals 84% of GDP (2024 data). A highly open economy, so local disruption travels quickly through supplier networks.
Only essential operations with specialist security support are advisable.
Key facts
GDPUS$17.8 billionLatest data, 2024
Real GDP growth1.9%Latest data, 2024
Inflation-6.6%Latest data, 2024
Trade84% of GDPLatest data, 2024
Population43.8 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Afghanistan threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Afghanistan for business?
Afghanistan carries a severe level of political and security risk for business. It scores 74 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 5 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Afghanistan?
The main risk drivers are staff movement and duty of care (severe); armed conflict and political violence (severe); protest and civil unrest (guarded). Foreign governments warn against all travel, the highest level of warning.
What is the outlook for Afghanistan?
We assess it is likely (60 to 75%) that Afghanistan stays in the Severe band through the end of December. It sits 5 points from the High band.
How often is the Afghanistan risk assessment updated?
The Afghanistan threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
Custom reports
Need a deeper read on Afghanistan?
Zed Three builds custom threat and risk reports around your people, suppliers and routes.
Free weekday briefing
Get Chokepoint free
The five stories that move markets, supply chains and deals, each with the so what worked out. Five minutes, every weekday morning.