Political stabilityElevated
Bolsonaro rejected the runoff result and later left Brazil.
Country risk assessment ยท Americas
Brazil political and security risk assessment
Brazil sits in the Elevated band. President Lula won a fourth term in the Oct 25 runoff with 51.79% of valid votes, and Flavio Bolsonaro rejected the result. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
44of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Americas
Brazil
What is the political and security risk in Brazil right now?
Brazil sits in the Elevated band. President Lula won a fourth term in the Oct 25 runoff with 51.79% of valid votes, and Flavio Bolsonaro rejected the result.
Organized crime and protest activity are the main standing risks for business.
What are the main risks of operating in Brazil?
CrimeHigh
Organized crime and armed violence are persistent in major cities.
PolicyGuarded
Lula's new term begins January 5, 2027, giving policy continuity.
What has changed recently in Brazil?
Lula won the runoff with 64,256,232 votes to Flavio Bolsonaro's 59,826,041.
Lula was declared winner and Bolsonaro rejected the results.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess it is unlikely that post election protests cause sustained disruption to ports or highways within 3 months.
10 to 25%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Expect policy continuity under Lula's fourth term.
Maintain urban security protocols in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo.
Watch for truckers' protests on key highways.
Key facts
GDPUS$2.28 trillionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth2.3%Latest data, 2025
Inflation5%Latest data, 2025
Trade35% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Fuel exports16% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Ores and metals12% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Food exports41% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population212.8 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Brazil threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Brazil for business?
Brazil sits in the Elevated band. President Lula won a fourth term in the Oct 25 runoff with 51.79% of valid votes, and Flavio Bolsonaro rejected the result.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Brazil?
The main risk drivers are political stability (elevated); crime (high); policy (guarded). Bolsonaro rejected the runoff result and later left Brazil.
What is the outlook for Brazil?
We assess it is unlikely (10 to 25%) that post election protests cause sustained disruption to ports or highways within 3 months.
How often is the Brazil risk assessment updated?
The Brazil threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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