Armed conflict and political violenceElevated
Armed violence is reported regularly in some areas.
Country risk assessment ยท Americas
Ecuador political and security risk assessment
Ecuador carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 41 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
41of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Americas
Ecuador
What is the political and security risk in Ecuador right now?
Ecuador carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 41 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 3.7% in 2025 with inflation at 0.7%.
What are the main risks of operating in Ecuador?
Staff movement and duty of careGuarded
Foreign governments advise normal to increased caution.
Protest and civil unrestGuarded
Protests occur but rarely disrupt operations.
What has changed recently in Ecuador?
Ecuador moved up 1 this week and rose 15 points over the last 12 weeks, from 26 to 41.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Ecuador stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 2 points from the Guarded band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Food makes up 59% of goods exports (2025 data), so harvest, port and road disruption matter for buyers.
Trade equals 59% of GDP (2025 data). Map tier one and tier two suppliers here and hold buffer stock for critical inputs.
Operations continue but need active security planning in affected areas.
Key facts
GDPUS$130.3 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth3.7%Latest data, 2025
Inflation0.7%Latest data, 2025
Trade59% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Fuel exports21% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Food exports59% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population18.3 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Ecuador threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Ecuador for business?
Ecuador carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 41 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), up 1 on last week and rising over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Ecuador?
The main risk drivers are armed conflict and political violence (elevated); staff movement and duty of care (guarded); protest and civil unrest (guarded). Armed violence is reported regularly in some areas.
What is the outlook for Ecuador?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Ecuador stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 2 points from the Guarded band.
How often is the Ecuador risk assessment updated?
The Ecuador threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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