Protest and civil unrestSevere
Protest and unrest activity is very high and can disrupt cities and transport.
Country risk assessment ยท Americas
Cuba political and security risk assessment
Cuba carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 37 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
37of 100
Guarded
Band 2 of 5
▲ Up 1 on last week
Americas
Cuba
What is the political and security risk in Cuba right now?
Cuba carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 37 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is little changed. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings and persistent protest activity.
What are the main risks of operating in Cuba?
Staff movement and duty of careElevated
Foreign governments advise a high degree of caution, with some regional warnings.
Armed conflict and political violenceGuarded
Armed violence is occasional and mostly localized.
Sanctions and complianceElevated
New or active sanctions designations touch this country, raising compliance screening needs.
What has changed recently in Cuba?
Cuba moved up 1 this week and rose 1 point over the last 12 weeks, from 36 to 37.
- Reporting of armed clashes and attacks up 3% week on week
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Cuba stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 3 points from the Elevated band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Ores and metals make up 53% of goods exports (2022 data), so mining regions and export corridors are the exposure to watch.
Trade equals 125% of GDP (2024 data). A highly open economy, so local disruption travels quickly through supplier networks.
Screen counterparties, vessels and cargo against current sanctions lists before transacting.
Operating conditions are generally normal, with localized risks to plan around.
Key facts
Real GDP growth-1.1%Latest data, 2024
Trade125% of GDPLatest data, 2024
Ores and metals53% of goods exportsLatest data, 2022
Food exports31% of goods exportsLatest data, 2022
Population10.9 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Cuba threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Cuba for business?
Cuba carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 37 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), up 1 on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Cuba?
The main risk drivers are protest and civil unrest (severe); staff movement and duty of care (elevated); armed conflict and political violence (guarded); sanctions and compliance (elevated). Protest and unrest activity is very high and can disrupt cities and transport.
What is the outlook for Cuba?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Cuba stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 3 points from the Elevated band.
How often is the Cuba risk assessment updated?
The Cuba threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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