Staff movement and duty of careElevated
Foreign governments advise a high degree of caution, with some regional warnings.
Country risk assessment ยท Americas
Guatemala political and security risk assessment
Guatemala carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 40 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
40of 100
Elevated
Band 3 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Americas
Guatemala
What is the political and security risk in Guatemala right now?
Guatemala carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 40 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is steady. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 4.3% in 2025 with inflation at 1.5%.
What are the main risks of operating in Guatemala?
Protest and civil unrestElevated
Protests are persistent but usually manageable with planning.
Armed conflict and political violenceGuarded
Armed violence is occasional and mostly localized.
What has changed recently in Guatemala?
Guatemala moved unchanged this week and fell 3 points over the last 12 weeks, from 43 to 40.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Guatemala stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 1 point from the Guarded band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Food makes up 47% of goods exports (2025 data), so harvest, port and road disruption matter for buyers.
Trade equals 47% of GDP (2025 data). Map tier one and tier two suppliers here and hold buffer stock for critical inputs.
Operations continue but need active security planning in affected areas.
Key facts
GDPUS$123.3 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth4.3%Latest data, 2025
Inflation1.5%Latest data, 2025
Trade47% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Food exports47% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population18.7 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Guatemala threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Guatemala for business?
Guatemala carries an elevated level of political and security risk for business. It scores 40 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 3 of 5), unchanged on last week and broadly stable over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Guatemala?
The main risk drivers are staff movement and duty of care (elevated); protest and civil unrest (elevated); armed conflict and political violence (guarded). Foreign governments advise a high degree of caution, with some regional warnings.
What is the outlook for Guatemala?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Guatemala stays in the Elevated band through the end of December. It sits 1 point from the Guarded band.
How often is the Guatemala risk assessment updated?
The Guatemala threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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