Shipping and chokepoints
The main maritime security threats facing shipping in 2026
GPS jamming, mines, drone and missile strikes, seizures and piracy: where each threat is concentrated in 2026 and what operators can do.
Guide
Shipping and chokepointsLast updated
3 minute read
By Zed Three analysts
Short answer
The main maritime security threats in 2026 are missile, drone and mine attacks around Hormuz and the Gulf, sea drone strikes in the Black Sea, GPS jamming and spoofing from the Gulf to the Baltic, vessel seizures, and piracy and armed robbery in the Gulf of Guinea and Singapore Strait. UKMTO had logged 631 GNSS interference reports by September.
Last updated
Conflict zones
The Hormuz region saw the most incidents of any month of the war in October, including a tanker struck by explosives attached by a small boat and a Qatari LNG carrier hit by unidentified objects. The IMO counts 106 confirmed incidents and 24 seafarer deaths since the conflict began. In the Black Sea, sea drones have struck merchant ships.
GPS jamming and spoofing
Interference is persistent in the southern and eastern Arabian Gulf, the Red Sea and the Baltic around the Gulf of Finland and Kaliningrad. Spoofed positions raise grounding and collision risk and confuse AIS based tracking.
What operators can do
Cross check satellite positions with radar and visual fixes, follow UKMTO and naval guidance, keep war risk notifications current for listed areas, and brief crews before entering high risk waters.
What happens next?
We assess it is likely that GNSS interference in the Gulf remains at or above current levels through December.
We assess it is likely that at least one more merchant ship is struck in the Gulf region in November.
Likelihood ranges are Zed Three editorial judgments as of Nov 2, 2026, not advice.
Free industry newsletter
Get Chokepoint free
The free industry newsletter going to 100K+ industry experts. The five stories that move markets, supply chains and deals, each with the so what worked out, every weekday morning.
Related chokepoints
Chokepoint explainer
Strait of HormuzThe Gulf's only sea exit, between Iran and OmanRead the explainer →Chokepoint explainer
Bab el-Mandeb StraitThe Red Sea's southern gate, between Yemen and DjiboutiRead the explainer →Chokepoint explainer
Bosphorus and the Turkish StraitsThe Black Sea's only sea link to the worldRead the explainer →Related country risk assessments
Frequently asked questions
Where is GPS jamming worst for ships?
In 2026, the southern and eastern Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Baltic near the Gulf of Finland and Kaliningrad.
Is piracy still a threat?
Yes. The Gulf of Guinea remains a Joint War Committee listed area, and armed robbery continues in the Singapore Strait.
Who do ships report incidents to?
In the Middle East and Indian Ocean, to UKMTO, which publishes advisories for the region.
Related guides
Free custom sample
Get a free sample threat report on shipping and chokepoints
Tell us your routes, suppliers or sites and Zed Three will build a custom sample threat report around them.