Protest and civil unrestSevere
Protest and unrest activity is very high and can disrupt cities and transport.
Country risk assessment ยท Asia
Sri Lanka political and security risk assessment
Sri Lanka carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 37 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks. Last updated Nov 2, 2026.
37of 100
Guarded
Band 2 of 5
▬ Unchanged on last week
Asia
Sri Lanka
What is the political and security risk in Sri Lanka right now?
Sri Lanka carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 37 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks.
Week on week the picture is steady. The main standing risks are foreign government warnings and persistent protest activity.
On the economic side, real GDP grew 5% in 2025 with inflation at -4.8%.
What are the main risks of operating in Sri Lanka?
Armed conflict and political violenceElevated
Armed violence is reported regularly in some areas.
Staff movement and duty of careGuarded
Foreign governments advise normal to increased caution.
What has changed recently in Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka moved unchanged this week and fell 15 points over the last 12 weeks, from 52 to 37.
What happens next? Outlook for the next 1 to 3 months
We assess there is a realistic possibility that Sri Lanka stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 3 points from the Elevated band.
40 to 55%
0%50%100%
Likelihood ranges are editorial judgments, not advice.
What does it mean for shipping, supply chains and operations?
Trade equals 42% of GDP (2025 data). Supply chain exposure is mainly to regional and global shocks rather than local events.
Operating conditions are generally normal, with localized risks to plan around.
Key facts
GDPUS$108.8 billionLatest data, 2025
Real GDP growth5%Latest data, 2025
Inflation-4.8%Latest data, 2025
Trade42% of GDPLatest data, 2025
Food exports29% of goods exportsLatest data, 2025
Population21.8 millionLatest data, 2025
How has the Sri Lanka threat score moved?
Frequently asked questions
What is the political and security risk in Sri Lanka for business?
Sri Lanka carries a guarded level of political and security risk for business. It scores 37 out of 100 on the Zed Three World Threat Map (band 2 of 5), unchanged on last week and falling over the last 12 weeks.
What are the main geopolitical risks of operating in Sri Lanka?
The main risk drivers are protest and civil unrest (severe); armed conflict and political violence (elevated); staff movement and duty of care (guarded). Protest and unrest activity is very high and can disrupt cities and transport.
What is the outlook for Sri Lanka?
We assess there is a realistic possibility (40 to 55%) that Sri Lanka stays in the Guarded band through the end of December. It sits 3 points from the Elevated band.
How often is the Sri Lanka risk assessment updated?
The Sri Lanka threat score is updated weekly on the Zed Three World Threat Map, and this assessment is reviewed monthly. It was last updated Nov 2, 2026.
Related country assessments
Published by Zed Three, a private, independent risk intelligence company. Assessment last updated Nov 2, 2026. Threat score updated weekly, last on Nov 2, 2026. General analysis for informational purposes, not security, legal or investment advice.
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